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A failed revolt could have dire consequences for Umno rebels, said political analyst Wong Chin Huat.
This follows Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's announcement in his national address yesterday that he had received royal assent to table a vote of confidence in September after his majority was called into question over the last few days.
Despite the withdrawal of support for his government by 11 Umno MPs led by party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Muhyiddin claimed that he still holds the majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
Wong noted that similar to the aftermath of the Sheraton Move, it is possible that some MPs could change their positions more than once.
“While the fate of the six members of the court cluster probably cannot be worse, others who pull out - like the Lenggong MP who quit as a minister - are putting their political careers on the chopping board.
“A failed revolt means the reverse takeover of Umno by Muhyiddin loyalists who will, in turn, deny the rebels candidacy under Umno in the 15th general election,” he said in a statement on Facebook today.
He added that the party rebels would not allow Muhyiddin time to rebuild his coalition and “let themselves be condemned to the political wilderness”.
“The stake is so high that the rebels must take more of their colleagues out of the government bench. If more ministers or deputy ministers leave the government, those who stay back with Muhyiddin will face tremendous pressure from the party grassroots.
“Once the number snowballs, Umno rebels will demand the vote of no-confidence next week instead of next month. If this is backed in any way by the Malay rulers, Muhyiddin may just have to cave in. But if the exodus ends, then the game will be over soon," Wong said.
Yesterday, Zahid said that a further list of Umno MPs who have lost confidence in the PM had been submitted to Istana Negara.
However, he failed to disclose how many party MPs were on the extended list.
Wong, in his post, assessed the makeup of the 115 MPs who had been supporting Muhyiddin, saying it consists of three blocs: Umno (38), Bersatu (31), and others (46).
The 46 others include PAS with 18, GPS also with 18, MCA (two), MIC (one), PBRS (one), PBS (1), Star (one) and independent (four).
Wong claimed that if Umno’s 38 MPs can unanimously pull out from the Perikatan Nasional government, they would then be able to “dominate the entire 115” as the various 46 MPs won’t be bothered about who is the boss.
This leaves Bersatu’s 31 MPs with very few options, as Wong claimed that they are unlikely to join forces with Pakatan Harapan.