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* New aluminium capacity expected in Malaysia and India

* Higher aluminium scrap utilisation to supplement

By Pratima Desai

LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A prolonged period of highaluminium prices created partly by output cuts in China isexpected to encourage new capacity in other parts of the world,which will eventually weigh on prices trading at 10-year highs.

Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange hit$2,734.5 a tonne on Wednesday, a gain of 37% this year and thehighest since May 2011. Aluminium is widely used in thetransport, packaging and construction industries.

Robust demand growth, surging freight costs and shortages inEurope and the United States started the rally earlier this yearwith China picking up the baton in recent months by imposingoutput cuts to reduce power use and cut emissions.

Deficits and high prices over the next few years willsustain aluminium prices, leading to investment in new capacityin Russia, Malaysia, India and the Middle East, said Macquarieanalyst Lynn Zhao.

Zhao estimates nearly 2.35 million tonnes of China'saluminium capacity is currently idled.

"Year-to-date production losses in China have reached520,000 tonnes. Our 2021 estimate for the market balance hasmoved from a 530,000 tonne surplus to a 700,000 tonne deficit.We expect persistent deficits through 2025."

Analysts expect global total aluminium demand at around 76million tonnes in 2025, up 10% from this year, leaving a supplydeficit of about two million tonnes.

Aluminium prices are significantly above the marginal costsof production or the 90th percentile on the cost curve, whichMacquarie estimates at around $2,100 a tonne on a global basis.

Higher prices could also persuade Chinese companies to buildaluminium smelters in places such as Indonesia.

New capacity will have to be supplemented with higherutilisation of scrap, already around 65-70% globally, accordingto Wood Mackenzie analyst Uday Patel.

"Scrap is the bridge between carbon emissions targets andhow we meet them," Patel said. "China is in deficit, it hasimported 1.5 million tonnes in the seven months to July afterimporting two million tonnes last year."

Wood Mackenzie estimates marginal costs at around $1,900 atonne for China and just above $1,950 a tonne for the rest ofthe world. REUTERS


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