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Bright prospects: The headquarters of Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD in Shenzhen’s Guangdong province. High-tech manufacturing or emissions reduction projects are expected to prosper under President Xi Jinping’s next five years in office.— Reuters

SYDNEY: For global banks and fund managers drawing up their 2022 China investment strategies, one factor occupies their minds but eludes valuation models: President Xi Jinping’s next five years in office.

Having done away with term limits in 2018, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong is steering the country back toward its socialist roots, upending financial markets.

Crackdowns on Internet giants, property developers and education have MSCI’s China index down 20% in 2021 against a 15% rise in world stocks, while China’s once-popular high-yield debt market has crumbled.

There is a growing consensus that the selling is overdone, but with Xi all but assured an unprecedented third term next year and with policy in flux, investors have said positioning for the era to come is a more delicate task than simply bargain hunting.

“What you buy today and what you buy in the future will be quite different from what you bought last year, five years ago or 10 years ago,” said Chi Lo, senior strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong.

“The new regime under the Xi Jinping government is going to be more properly supervised, more regulated,” he said.

“Companies’ operation models will have to change...what the Chinese government wants to develop will be the key to decide your portfolio’s composition.”

Lo suggested avoiding “sunset” sectors such as coal and steel to focus on apparent priorities such as high-tech manufacturing or emissions reduction projects.

Other global banks have offered similar ideas. Goldman Sachs compiled a 50-stock “common prosperity portfolio” containing renewable energy firms, some consumer-exposed companies and tech and state-owned firms with a focus on research, among others.

JP Morgan has highlighted the potential of “new heroes” in electric vehicles, such as BYD Co Ltd, and advanced manufacturing while “old heroes” in the property sector fade.

Jack Siu, chief investment officer for Greater China at Credit Suisse, is on watch for a possible upgrade in company earnings next year, as “we will likely see some supportive fiscal policy and moderately or slightly less tight monetary policy” ahead of the Party Congress, which could usher in another term for Xi.

Morgan Stanley expects an above consensus economic recovery to 5.5% growth in 2022 as policy is eased.

Societe Generale, which says China has the highest potential for upside in Asia next year, is overweight on staples, 5G and high-end manufacturers and said China’s blue-chip CSI300 aligns better with policy priorities than MSCI’s index which has heavy weightings to some out-of-favour Internet firms.


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