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KUALA LUMPUR: After an uneven and underwhelming recovery in 2021, Malaysia’s economy will likely emerge as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asean next year, according to economists and equity analysts.
A report by Credit Suisse projected that the country’s economy would grow by 4.4% in 2021 and more than 6% in 2022.
This will put it ahead of most of its regional peers in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
“To a large extent, the economic rebound is dependent on a recovery in private sector consumption, which is the biggest component of the GDP (close to 60%),” the investment bank said.
Despite the government’s one-off hike in corporate tax for 2022, Credit Suisse still projected a market net profit growth of 10% in 2022 (versus Asia-excluding-Japan average of 9%) and core net profit growth of close to 14%.
It opined that Malaysia has investment opportunities from developing trends such as a shift from pandemic to endemic, “self-help initiatives” by corporates, supply chain disruptions, growing dominance of the digital economy, as well as valuation divergence caused by environmental, social and governance.A report by Credit Suisse projected that the country’s economy would grow by 4.4% in 2021 and more than 6% in 2022.
The research unit also noted that equities are trading at attractive valuations, as Malaysia has been the worst-performing market in Asean despite earnings recovery.
“The market is not expensive relative to its historical valuations and is now trading at an average price-to-earnings of 14.4 times, which is one standard deviation below its historical average of 16.9 times,” said Credit Suisse.
In terms of price-to-book value, the market is trading at a post-global financial crisis low of 1.4 times, with return on equity projected at 8.7% in 2021-2022 (versus 5.9% in 2020).
Credit Suisse expects the FBM KLCI to hit 1,730 points by end-2022, implying a 16% upside.
In terms of stock and sector preferences, it favours those that are well positioned to benefit from the economic re-opening, and more specifically the pick-up in private consumption.
It also prefers stocks and sectors that are at a valuation discount to historic levels, comparatively more insulated from possible political disruptions, potential beneficiaries of supply-chain disruptions that might take a longer-than-expected time to resolve, and beneficiaries of digital economy growth.
Stocks that meet Credit Suisse’s investment criteria are CIMB Group Holdings Bhd