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aws账号(www.2km.me)_Think tank: China to grow 5.5% this year

admin2022-01-1629

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Rosy picture: A resident shopping for decorations ahead of the Lunar New Year in Shenyang Liaoning province. China’s domestic consumption will gradually pick up due to the smooth recovery of the national economy. — AFP

BEIJING: China’s economy is expected to grow around 5.5% in 2022, bringing the average annual growth rate forecast for 2020 to 2022 to 5.34%, according to a top government think tank.

The gross domestic product (GDP) is poised to maintain steady growth in 2022 after rebounding to an estimated 8.2% growth in 2021, according to annual forecasts by the Centre for Forecasting Science (CEFS) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Bao Qin, assistant director of the CEFS, said China’s GDP growth rate is expected to reach around 5.2% in the first quarter of 2022, with the second and third quarters to be 5.5% and 5.6%, respectively. The fourth quarter GDP is likely to grow by 5.7%.

“Domestic consumption is expected to maintain sustained growth in 2022, with a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 5.4% to 7%, which will still be the main driving force for economic growth,” Bao said.

Bao said domestic consumption would gradually pick up due to the smooth recovery of the national economy, improvement of domestic emergency prevention capacity, continuous development of enterprise operations, further recovery of offline consumption and effective government measures to spur consumption.

According to the forecasts, the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) is expected to be 5% to 6% in 2022.

The country’s imports and exports are likely to surge more than 6% year-on-year to reach US$6.41 trillion (RM26.77 trillion) in 2022, with exports and imports increasing nearly 7% and over 5%, respectively, the forecasts showed.

The CEFS warned the risk of price rises beyond expectation remains, estimating that the producer price index and consumer price index will rise about 4.3% and around 2% in 2022, respectively.

Citing the Central Economic Work Conference held last month, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Centre, highlighted the importance of combining cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilise the overall economy this year, saying they will help stabilise demand over the short term and deal with structural issues over the long run.

Going forward, Wang Tongsan, an academician with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that the government should roll out more detailed policies to expand investment.

“While the government has introduced a series of policies to spur consumption, policies for expanding investment are not as detailed, sufficient and comprehensive as those for consumption,” Wang pointed out. “To further expand domestic demand, more efforts should be made to strengthen the balance between investment and consumption.”

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